Tuesday, February 12, 2008

That AP Poll

I can't claim to be a complete polling expert, but that recent and now much talked about AP poll showing McCain losing to Obama 48-41 and McCain essentially tied with Clinton 45-46 is interesting in that it confirms what most (honest) observers on both sides of the isle think: That Obama is the tougher candidate to beat in the general election. And I agree. But doesn't this sample seem weird? First paragraph makes sense:

"The survey was conducted from Feb. 7-10 and involved telephone interviews with 1,029 adults. It had an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

But then:

Included were 520 Democrats, for whom the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4.3 points, and 357 Republicans, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.2 points."

College stats told me that a MOE of over 5.1 meant a questionable survey. And 520 Democrats to 357 Republicans? Seems odd.

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